Meteorological Agency, Climatology, and Geophysics predicts, in the upcoming two-week torrential rain in most areas of Sumatra, Lampung, except. This is based on satellite imagery watched Monday (6 / 10), which indicates accumulation occurred due to cloud the meeting flow of monsoon winds that sweep and close most of the Sumatra region.

“Especially in Lampung will be relatively the same with the western part of Java, including Jakarta, with conditions likely bring clouds, light rain. Moreover, the region of Central Java to the east of Nusa Tenggara is still up to dry,” said the head of the Climate and agro-climatic subsection Meteorological Agency, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) Soetamto.

According to Soetamto, clouds, rain conditions similar in Sumatra is also found in Jayapura, Papua. In this week, Jayapura and the surrounding area also have the opportunity to diprakirakan heavy rain.

Potential landslides

North Sumatra and Papua are two of the three provinces that have the highest potential for landslides, in addition to West Java. Estimates are based on analysis of data zone of vulnerability and the potential land rainfall.

This is shown head Vulkanologi Center and Geological Disaster Mitigation Surono (Kompas, 30 / 9). According to him, until the middle zone of potential high prone to landslides in North Sumatra, spread in 16 districts and cities.

The area most prone to landslides in them are in the South Tapanuli, North Tapanuli, and Sibolga. Still in Sumatra, Surono explained, in October 2008 occurred potential of large landslides and floods in the district of Sungai Garingging, West Sumatra.

Meanwhile, in Papua region with the condition that hills with the planting of vegetation, which greatly reduced, the potential landslide stronger. Papua region with the highest potential for landslides in the region include Mimika District, Nabire, Paniai, Sorong, Manokwari, Fakfak, and Jayapura.

Monsoon circulation

Soetamto said, with the monsoon circulation flow of wind from the mainland to southern Asia to meet with the wind flow from Australia to the north. Exact location of a meeting in the Sumatra region and form rain clouds, stretching to the east to West Kalimantan.

“Rain is caused due to accumulation of clouds from the monsoon circulation was different with the rain may also occur in the western region of Java. Rainfall in the western part of Java is still local,” said Soetamto. Rain affected the local water evaporation in the local and form clouds, which then bring rain.

Rain with different local rainfall due to monsoon circulation in the clouds formed a set of far greater and able to bring heavy rain spend-to-day.

Soetamto decompose, the current extreme weather conditions can not be. The impact of climate change to affect the various weather anomaly that move quickly. BMKG watched, until now the situation is still neutral. Extreme weather phenomena often arise influenced Dipole Mode bring the La Nina or El Nino. Similarly, Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), which is able to strengthen the potential for rain in the sentinel BMKG currently still neutral.

“For a while this role raises the potential for heavy rain still monsoon circulation,” said Soetamto. Drought, which overrides the Nusa Tenggara region and part of Java in the middle and east, according to Soetamto, also estimated will not reach the point of extreme, such as when La Nina affected.

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